• Evolving economic policy has made forecasting increasingly challenging.
• Consensus Economics surveys a panel of forecasters each month to gather their outlook for the U.S. economy and several key data series.
• The outlook for 2026 real GDP growth is holding steady, with a mean of 1.7%.
• Consumer Price Index (CPI) forecasts are also stabilizing at 2.7%.
• Forecasters expect little change in the 10-year Treasury, with a projected mean of 4.2% for August 2026.

Economists and forecasters are earning their keep. With changing tariff, tax, and spending policies, models are being put to the test. Real estate analysis has generally been seen as a mix of art and science, and that mindset seems increasingly relevant in today’s economic forecasting. Consensus Economics’ latest release sheds some light on expectations for 2026 across a variety of key economic data points, including GDP, CPI, and the 10-year Treasury.

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GDP forecasts have slightly improved over recent months, with the mean now at 1.7%. Estimates range from a low of 1.3% (among several forecasters) to a high of 2.4% from the National Association of Home Builders and S&P Global Market Intelligence. Two of the most prominent economic forecast shops, Moody’s Analytics and Oxford Economics, fall on opposite ends of the 2026 outlook. Moody’s expects growth of 1.4%, while Oxford anticipates 2.0%.

The outlook for CPI is stabilizing. The consensus mean is 2.7%, flat from last month but down 0.1 percentage points from three months ago. However, that level of inflation would be well above the Fed’s target of 2.0%. First Trust Advisors is a bit of an outlier, expecting CPI to come in at 1.8%. Georgia State University has the next-lowest projection at 2.0%, while Ford Motor Company and Moody’s Analytics sit on the high end at 3.2%.

Expectations for the 10-year Treasury suggest a continuation of “higher for longer,” with a mean of 4.2% at the end of August. Fewer observations are available here, as not all shops forecast this data series. The spread remains wide, with estimates ranging from 3.8% (Georgia State University, EY Parthenon, and Royal Bank of Canada) to a high of 4.7% (Independent Commodity Intelligence Services). Dynamic Economic Strategy follows with the next-highest estimate at 4.6%.

All eyes are on the Federal Reserve, with Jerome Powell scheduled to speak at Jackson Hole on August 22 and the next FOMC meeting set for September 16-17. The market is currently pricing in a 25-basis-point rate cut.