ULI’s Spring Meeting in New York took place April 9-11. Here are observations from various sessions and conversations over the three days of events: 

• Capital stacks get more complicated going forward. Meanwhile, there was debate over how much distress would emerge from upcoming debt maturities. 
• Foreign immigration has been much stronger than initially projected, contributing to job growth, fueling economic activity, and propping up inflation. 
• Part-time work is driving the job market. Full-time employment has declined over the past year, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ household survey. 
• Relationships and sponsor track record are as important as the economics of a deal today, if not more so. 
• There was much discussion about geopolitics and the shift from nations cooperating to competing.
• Numerous macro factors will create a structurally higher inflation environment, including the energy transition, demographics, geopolitics, and AI. 
• The U.S. deficit got attention. While the U.S. rate of debt/GDP is below that of Japan, the cost of servicing that debt is equivalent to military spending. This could result in a crowding-out effect, keeping interest rates sticky. 
• ULI forecasts for sales volume increases in 2024 are modest. By 2026, volume should be in line with 2019 levels. 
• CMBS issuance was forecast to increase slightly. On a positive note, annualizing Q1 data would blow past these estimates and top 2025 projections.  
• The U.S. housing shortage estimates ranged from about 1.2 million to 5 million, depending on the speaker. 
• Mass timber could offer a method of housing production for middle-income households. However, this is still a new technology in the U.S., which creates friction in execution.  
• The insurance market may need to change, shifting to local/community-based options. 
• Many topics discussed are not applicable or achievable with the current interest rate environment. This scenario will likely weigh on development across asset classes for some time.