Get ready for a deep dive into the fascinating world of retail. We’ll explore the back-to-school forecast trends while also taking you on a journey through the history of retail. From the ancient barter system to today’s digital marketplace, retail has always been at the forefront of innovation, shaping not just how we shop but also how we connect with our global community. Let’s unpack the lessons retail has taught us over the centuries and see how these historical shifts influence the 2024 back-to-school season.
Back-to-School Forecast Trends
Back-to-school spending season started as early as May this year and is likely to run through late fall as parents invest in supplies and activities to support their children’s education. Analysts anticipate back-to-school solid spending in 2024, with nearly half of U.S. adults planning to purchase back-to-school items.
Consumers are forecasted to spend up to $500, with a significant portion of shoppers (54%+) preferring to buy in-store. Income disparities will impact spending. Higher-income families will increase outlays by 5%, while low-income families will cut back by 4%. Middle-income shoppers prioritize value and private labels, often sacrificing brand loyalty due to cost.
Anjee Solanki
“Discount and dollar stores led retail visit growth in H1, with a 10.1% YoY foot traffic increase, and remain most popular as 70% of consumers favor them for their back-to-school needs.”
Despite inflation, consumer optimism is rising. Only 44% cite affordability concerns, down from last year. To manage budgets, shoppers are spreading purchases and capitalizing on early promotions. Amazon Prime Day boosted online sales in July, impacting in-store traffic. Yet, overall retail foot traffic is resilient, with discount and dollar stores leading the charge. In-store promotions influence one-third of back-to-school shoppers, while one-seventh prioritize in-store deals. We expect August retail sales to receive a significant boost from back-to-school spending, while September sales will likely benefit from Labor Day promotions, providing reassurance that the U.S. consumer continues to show up during key sales periods.
The First Retailers and the Power of Branding
Before brick-and-mortar stores and online marketplaces, trade began with direct bartering, evolving into more complex systems with the advent of money and banking. Permanent structures like forums became early trade hubs, laying the foundation for modern marketplaces and driving economic activity.
Retail as we know it began with brick-and-mortar shops like the Moravian Book Shop (c. 1745),Moravian Book Shop (c. 1745), which thrives today by adapting to modern trends. As trade grew, the need for product differentiation and brand identity became crucial, a concept first pioneered by ancient Chinese civilizations. Early “mom and pop” shops, like Ben & Jerry’s, started small but built strong brands by connecting with local communities and emphasizing unique values. Despite its growth and acquisition by Unilever in 2000, Ben & Jerry’s remains true to its grassroots mission and brand identity.
The Rise of Department Stores: One-Stop Shopping
The Industrial Revolution brought mass production and a growing consumer market, leading to the emergence of department stores as “one-stop shopping” destinations. Wanamaker’s, a late 19th-century pioneer, revolutionized retail with innovative merchandising and customer service, setting the stage for the mail-order catalogs of Tiffany’s, Montgomery Ward, and Sears Roebuck, which democratized shopping. Post-war suburbanization shifted retail to shopping centers and strip malls, challenging traditional department stores like Macy’s and JC Penney. In response, retailers like Nordstrom adapted with hybrid models, offering personalized experiences across physical and digital channels.
The New Era of Shopping
The digital revolution has transformed retail, offering new opportunities and challenges. Online marketplaces like Amazon, eBay, and Alibaba have disrupted traditional retail, offering vast product selections and convenience. Direct-to-consumer (DTC) brands have thrived, with sales expected to hit $161.22 billion by 2024. Smartphones have enabled on-the-go shopping, driving the growth of mobile-optimized sites, apps, and social commerce. Traditional retailers have responded by enhancing their e-commerce platforms and using AI and big data to personalize experiences and optimize supply chains. As retailers continue to innovate and evolve in response to these technological advancements, the future of shopping promises to be increasingly interconnected, data-driven, and consumer-centric.
Nicole Larson
