The American grocery landscape has become a high-stakes battleground where data meets dinner. The average U.S. household now spends nearly $920 a month on groceries — about $11,000 annually, roughly the same as the cost of full-time daycare in some states and 14% of the typical household income.

What Consumers Want

Consumer expectations evolve just as fast as the grocery segment, sometimes even quicker. With inflation tightening household budgets, shoppers balance sticker shock with strategic shopping, learning to stretch every dollar while still filling their carts. Value now drives every decision, from brand preference to store choice, as consumers weigh convenience, cost, and quality. At the same time, wellness has emerged as a powerful purchase motivator, fueling demand for sustainably sourced products that support healthier, more intentional lifestyles.

Over 58% of consumers believe the best grocery deals are available at brick-and-mortar locations, not online — although many now rely on store apps and delivery platforms like Instacart to compare prices and stretch their budgets on staples like dairy, produce, and snacks. Community engagement also plays an integral role in store choice, as 60% of consumers admit to feeling more connected to stores that feature local products and partnerships.

Grocers are rediscovering that loyalty begins at the neighborhood level. Publix, for instance, strengthens its regional roots by sourcing citrus, seafood, and baked goods from nearby producers and partnering with local food banks to redirect surplus inventory. Meanwhile, a growing number of retailers are taking local to the next level, transforming storefronts and parking lots into pop-up spaces for farmers markets, food trucks, and artisan fairs to engage the local community.

Convenience continues to shape how Americans shop. Nearly half (47%) of U.S. consumers identify as “Quick Trippers,” favoring short, efficient grocery runs and stores with intuitive layouts and frictionless checkout, according to MG2 Advisory’s latest grocery report. Digitally savvy Gen X, Millennial, and Gen Z consumers prefer self-checkout — while two in five still opt for staffed lanes, valuing human interaction when delays or technical issues arise. For 40% of shoppers, checkout choice ultimately comes down to one thing: speed and efficiency. Beyond checkout, store design and merchandising play a measurable role in behavior — experience-led layouts can increase dwell time by 15–20%, directly influencing how long shoppers browse and how much they buy.

The Tech Smart Advantage

As grocers prioritize AI and automation, a sector that expects to unlock $136 billion in value by 2030, the weekly grocery run is evolving into a data-powered ecosystem that will reshape how Americans shop for food. According to PwC, 40% of U.S. shoppers expect to use AI for comparison shopping by 2030, and a third anticipate fully automated grocery purchases. Millennials are leading adoption, but Gen Z’s emphasis on transparency means retailers must balance innovation with control — using AI to drive personalization, efficiency, and loyalty while maintaining trust through data governance and opt-in experiences.

Even as smart-store technology is on the rise, consumer interest varies on what makes for an ideal shopping experience. Nearly 40% of shoppers favor smart carts that scan items and display running totals; 26% prefer digital shelf tags with live updates on products and pricing; and 25% prefer navigation tools to locate items quickly. These preferences reveal a strong appetite for convenience and clarity. Tools like Wegmans’ Instacart-powered Caper Carts — which link loyalty programs, real-time spending, and self-checkout — show how thoughtful tech can enhance both shopper experience and staff productivity. Yet 44% of shoppers cite malfunctioning tech as a top frustration, signaling that reliability must be addressed. For grocers, the opportunity isn’t simply to digitize the store but to create a seamless, human-centered system where automation builds trust, reduces friction, and retains customers, while also carving a path for expansion.

Density, Growth, and Expansion

Strategically mapping a holistic expansion means staking a claim on digital capabilities and product diversity to meet evolving consumer needs. Multicultural grocers have become part of the everyday American pantry, reflecting an increasingly diverse population and evolving tastes. This abundance, however, depends heavily on global imports: the U.S. brought in more than $33 billion in produce last year, with avocados, bananas, and blueberries accounting for more than a quarter of that total. As new trade tariffs raise import costs, access to affordable global ingredients could tighten, testing both retailer agility and consumer loyalty in a marketplace that prizes variety as much as value.

According to IBISWorld, 78,680 supermarkets and grocery stores operate nationwide, but access remains a challenge. Store density varies dramatically by region: New York tops the list at 4.3 stores per 10,000 residents, while Vermont, Maine and Alaska — despite vastly different geographies — all maintain high per-capita store counts to serve their dispersed populations. Yet in many rural and lower-income areas, grocery options remain scarce, with residents relying on dollar stores or convenience chains that fill the gap left by traditional grocers.

Grocers like Sprouts Farmers Market have used proprietary data to refine site-selection models, factoring customer demographics, competitor proximity, and trade patterns, and pairing smaller, high-yield store formats with online delivery integration to strengthen performance. Likewise, Amazon has pledged $4+ billion to triple its rural delivery network by 2026 and extend same-day and next-day service to over 4,000 rural communities. Some examples of how retailers use data-driven insight, logistics, and localized partnerships to expand reach, improve efficiency, and unlock new pathways for sustained growth.

Aldi, the nation’s third-largest grocery chain, is undergoing its most aggressive expansion yet, with plans to open 800 new stores by 2028, including a record 255 openings this year alone. The growth includes the acquisition and conversion of roughly 220 Winn-Dixie and Harvey’s Supermarket stores. In an unexpected turn earlier this year, a private investor group led by Winn-Dixie CEO Anthony Hucker reacquired 170 of those stores in early 2025, preserving the beloved Southern brand across Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, and Mississippi. In the meantime, fan favorite Trader Joe’s quietly scales its stores with 41 openings slated by 2026, and Amazon doubles down on its Whole Foods integration eight years post-acquisition.

The $11,000 battle for America’s grocery dollar creates unprecedented opportunities for retailers willing to adapt. With proper guidance, grocers can leverage data-driven insights to identify underserved markets, optimize store formats for Quick Trippers, and position themselves at the intersection of technology and community. Strategic real estate advisors help retailers see beyond traditional metrics, uncovering locations where demographic shifts, technological readiness, and local partnerships align to create lasting competitive advantage. Connect with a Colliers Retail Advisor today.